From: MPetrelis@aol.com Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2000 21:06:21 EDT Subject: SF health dept.: "No major increase of any reportable STD" in 1999 [Dear friends: The Journal of the American Medical Association, JAMA, last week printed a study from Drs. Jeff Klausner and Mitch Katz, et al., "Tracing a Syphilis Outbreak Through Cyberspace," in which the authors cited the preliminary annual STD rates for San Francisco from the SF STD unit's monthly report of January 27, 2000. (See note number 12, Tracing a Syphilis Outbreak Through Cyberspace ). I went back to my files to again read the full one page report and happily rediscovered the editorial note was full of data about stabilized STD cases. Including rectal gonorrhea cases, usually cited as an indicator associated with HIV transmission. I bring this to your attention because allegations have been made by UCSF and DPH Aids researchers that HIV transmission levels in SF have tripled to almost 1,000 per year. Four long weeks after the SF Chronicle screamed about a "surge" of HIV here, minute data has been distributed proving the HIV rates. Putting aside valid and ever-growing concerns about the DPH and UCSF allegations for a moment, and only looking at number of male rectal gonorrhea cases, along with total adult syphilis cases, there really is a statistically stable rate. With male rectal gonorrhea and adult syphilis stable, how can we then make the leap to HIV supposedly being transmitted to 1,000 new people this year? For argument's sake, let's say the rectal rate is 160 per year and adult syphilis is 125 per year. If these STD rates so relatively low, and basically stable, how can the HIV rate be so much higher? I would expect STD rates to be corresponding to HIV rates, not wildly unmatched. I strongly encourage you to visit the SF DPH web site and download the January 27, 2000 report in PDF and examine the charts, which I can't share with you in an email. ( http://www.dph.sf.ca.us/Reports/HlthAssess.htm, or check out Health Assessments & Data ). Pay particular attention to Table 1 and the non-gonococcal urethritis, or "dick drip," case line. In 1998 there were 719 cases, versus 489 cases in 1999. Just one more indicator STD rates for males in SF, including gay males, are truly declining and/or stable? Yes, one of a number of factors that convince me the only way to probe recent unsubstantiated charges of HIV levels surging in a very large sexual health context. --mp] * * * San Francisco Monthly STD Report Data Through December 1999 Report prepared on January 27, 2000 STD Control Unit 1360 Mission Street San Francisco, CA 94102 Phone: 415-554-8450 Editorial Note: This report includes provision annual totals for 1999. Until the 1999 annual report is released, these annual totals should be interpreted with care. There appears to have been a small increase, 2%, in the number of reported cases of CT between 1998 and 1999. The total number of reported cases of gonorrhea has declined by about 15% since 1998. With only two more cases of rectal gonorrhea reported than in 1998, rectal gonorrhea may be leveling in San Francisco. Primary and secondary syphilis also appears to have been stable between 1998 and 1999, with only 26 cases reported each year. Like in 1998, only one case of congenital syphilis was reported in 1999. There were also no cases of chancroid reported in 1999. Overall, the provisional data suggest that STD rates in San Francisco were relatively stable in 1999, with no major increases of any reportable STD. During 2000, San Francisco STD Services will continue to promote the primary prevention of and early identification and treatment of STDs in order to create a healthy sexually environment for San Francisco residents. Anyone can be evaluated for STDs at The City's municipal STD clinic. There were over 17,000 patients visits at the clinic during 1999. For more information about the City Clinic, please call 415-487-5500 or visit our web page at www.dph.sf.ca.us/sfcityclinic. Report prepared by Charlotte Kent Chief Epidemiology and Research STD Services Phone: 415-554-8450 ======================== Michael Petrelis Welcome to AIDS-STATISTICS www.AIDS-statistics.com 2215-R Market Street, #413 San Francisco, CA 94114