From: MPetrelis@aol.com Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2000 15:07:02 EDT Subject: Letter to WSJ about HIV rates in SF July 19, 2000 Ned Crabb, Letters Editor The Wall Street Journal 200 Liberty Street New York, NY 10281 Dear editor: Regarding the allegation in Ann Carrns July 10 story, (Levels of HIV Infection and AIDS Fail To Decline in the U.S., Health Data Show, front page), that "HIV infections rose significantly in 1997-1999" in San Francisco. Carrns wrote this supposed fact was disclosed by officials of the San Francisco Department of Public Health. I must bring to your attention additional HIV testing data recently released by the health department here, a story in the Bay Area Reporter, San Francisco's weekly gay paper, and an editorial in the NY Press, seriously questioning a surge in HIV infections. First, the email below is from Steven Tierney, director of HIV Prevention Programs for San Francisco. As you can see, number of HIV tests performed at anonymous testing sites (ATS), has declined and the percentages show an ever so slight decline, statistically speaking, to really show a stable rate of HIV infections. "Subj: data Date: 7/10/00 10:38:55 AM Pacific Daylight Time From: Steven_Tierney@dph.sf.ca.us Sender: Steven_Tierney@dph.sf.ca.us Reply-to: Steven_Tierney@dph.sf.ca.us To: mpetrelis@aol.com Good Morning Michael, Attached is the grid. Call if you need anything else. Steven 415-554-9998 415-554-9000 ATS-Stats from LAB Results Year Total Tests Total Positives Total Negatives 1999 6151 149 (2.42%) 5995 1998 6931 141 (2.03%) 6778 1997 7067 145 (2.05%) 6918 1996 8683 194 (2.23%) 8485 1995 9698 271 (2.79%) 9427 ." Your story was referring to unverified research created by Dr. Willi McFarland of SF health department and the University of California at San Francisco. He used detuned ELISA technology, still not approved by the Food and Drug Administration, to project estimates of HIV infections. McFarland was quoted in the June 30 San Francisco Chronicle stating the HIV infection rate here was at "sub-Saharan African levels of transmission," because the city allegedly went from an estimated 500 infection annually to almost 900. However, McFarland told the Bay Area Reporter that "The 900 number is not an official DPH number . . . The comparison to sub-Saharan Africa is unfortunate." McFarland's boss, Dr. Mitch Katz, director of the SF health department, backed away from McFarland's projections in the Bay Area Reporter. "The reason why the 900 number of new infections is a less reliable data point in that it's very sensitive to estimates in the size of the population," Katz said. The editorial in the July 7 NY Press, (Web link: Ne w York Press - New York's Premier Alternative Newspaper , http://www.nypress.com/content.cfm?content_id=2253&content_section=1), by John Strausbaugh noted "The timing of the announcement was interesting [because] the House of Representatives had just announced plans for a major cutback in federal AIDS funds to San Francisco, in response to the city's greatly reduced number of AIDS cases over the previous several years." Strausbaugh justifiably criticizes mainstream media outlets for ignoring the backtracking of San Francisco AIDS researchers. "An alarming jump in the HIV rate in San Francisco, with frightening implications for the rest of the nation and the world, makes better copy – and a better fit with the media’s self-appointed role as social welfare programmers – than does a group of public health bureaucrats fudging numbers in an effort to save their budget," Strausbaugh wrote. I hope you will print a correction to the Wall Street Journal's erroneous claim of increased HIV infections in San Francisco. Of all the papers in the world, yours should be the one to apply balanced mathematical skepticism when urban public health officials, facing almost certain cutbacks in federal funding, present indicators alleging HIV infection is skyrocketing. Sincerely, Michael Petrelis Welcome to AIDS-STATISTICS www.AIDS-statistics.com 2215-R Market Street, #413 San Francisco, CA 94114 enclosures: Web link: Ne w York Press - New York's Premier Alternative Newspaper. Arts, Eats, Music, F< /A> http://www.nypress.com/content.cfm?content_id=2253&content_section=1 7-12-2000 NY Press Editorial John Strausbaugh When Statistics Beat the Truth Two weeks ago, San Francisco Dept. of Public Health officials announced that new cases of HIV in the city had risen sharply in 1999, to almost triple 1997 levels. A tone of apocalyptic panic set by the San Francisco Chronicle–"S.F. HIV Rate Surges; alarming incidence of new infections raises fears of scourge to come"–spread around the globe via wire services and dire reports in major dailies like The Washington Post and New York Times. [Deleted article. filemanager@qrd.org] -------------------- Bay Area Reporter July 6, 2000 DPH bungles on HIV infection rate increases ----- Officials backpedal in wake of news stories By Terry Beswick Sensational headlines circled the globe last Friday, June 30. "S.F. HIV Rate Surges; alarming incidence of new infections raises fears of scourge to come," exclaimed the San Francisco Chronicle. [Deleted article. filemanager@qrd.org] ----- Want to respond? Send letters to: Bay Area Reporter 395 Ninth Street San Francisco, CA 94103 Phone: (415) 861-5019 Fax: (415) 861-6701 Email: barpaper@aol.com Michael Petrelis Welcome to AIDS-STATISTICS www.AIDS-statistics.com 2215-R Market Street, #413 San Francisco, CA 94114