Subject: Letter to WSJ about HIV rates in SF
From: [email-masked]
Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2000 15:07:02 EDT

July 19, 2000

Ned Crabb, Letters Editor
The Wall Street Journal
200 Liberty Street
New York, NY 10281

Dear editor:

Regarding the allegation in Ann Carrns July 10 story, (Levels of HIV 
Infection and AIDS Fail To Decline in the U.S., Health Data Show, front 
page), that "HIV infections rose significantly in 1997-1999" in San 
Francisco. Carrns wrote this supposed fact was disclosed by officials of the 
San Francisco Department of Public Health.

I must bring to your attention additional HIV testing data recently released 
by the health department here, a story in the Bay Area Reporter, San 
Francisco's weekly gay paper, and an editorial in the NY Press, seriously 
questioning a surge in HIV infections.

First, the email below is from Steven Tierney, director of HIV Prevention 
Programs for San Francisco. As you can see, number of HIV tests performed at 
anonymous testing sites (ATS), has declined and the percentages show an ever 
so slight decline, statistically speaking, to really show a stable rate of 
HIV infections.

"Subj:   data
Date:   7/10/00 10:38:55 AM Pacific Daylight Time
From:   [email-masked]
Sender: [email-masked]
Reply-to:   [email-masked]
To: [email-masked]

     Good Morning Michael,
     
     Attached is the grid. Call if you need anything else.
     
     Steven
      415-554-9998
      415-554-9000

     ATS-Stats from LAB Results
     Year       Total Tests     Total Positives Total Negatives
     1999       6151              149 (2.42%)     5995
     1998       6931              141 (2.03%)     6778
     1997       7067              145 (2.05%)     6918
     1996       8683              194 (2.23%)     8485
     1995       9698              271 (2.79%)     9427 ."

Your story was referring to unverified research created by Dr. Willi 
McFarland of SF health department and the University of California at San 
Francisco. He used detuned ELISA technology, still not approved by the Food 
and Drug Administration, to project estimates of HIV infections.

McFarland was quoted in the June 30 San Francisco Chronicle stating the HIV 
infection rate here was at "sub-Saharan African levels of transmission," 
because the city allegedly went from an estimated 500 infection annually to 
almost 900.

However, McFarland told the Bay Area Reporter that "The 900 number is not an 
official DPH number . . . The comparison to sub-Saharan Africa is 
unfortunate."

McFarland's boss, Dr. Mitch Katz, director of the SF health department, 
backed away from McFarland's projections in the Bay Area Reporter. "The 
reason why the 900 number of new infections is a less reliable data point in 
that it's very sensitive to estimates in the size of the population," Katz 
said.

The editorial in the July 7 NY Press, (Web link: <A 
HREF="http://www.nypress.com/content.cfm?content_id=2253&content_section=1">Ne
w York Press - New York's Premier Alternative Newspaper</A> , 
http://www.nypress.com/content.cfm?content_id=2253&content_section=1), by 
John Strausbaugh noted "The timing of the announcement was interesting 
[because] the House of Representatives had just announced plans for a major 
cutback in federal AIDS funds to San Francisco, in response to the city's 
greatly reduced number of AIDS cases over the previous several years."

Strausbaugh justifiably criticizes mainstream media outlets for ignoring the 
backtracking  of San Francisco AIDS researchers. "An alarming jump in the HIV 
rate in San Francisco, with frightening implications for the rest of the 
nation and the world, makes better copy – and a better fit with the media’s 
self-appointed role as social welfare programmers – than does a group of 
public health bureaucrats fudging numbers in an effort to save their budget," 
Strausbaugh wrote.

I hope you will print a correction to the Wall Street Journal's erroneous 
claim of increased HIV infections in San Francisco. Of all the papers in the 
world, yours should be the one to apply balanced mathematical skepticism when 
urban public health officials, facing almost certain cutbacks in federal 
funding, present indicators alleging HIV infection is skyrocketing.

Sincerely,
Michael Petrelis
 <A HREF="http://www.aids-statistics.com/">Welcome to AIDS-STATISTICS</A>
www.AIDS-statistics.com 
2215-R Market Street, #413
San Francisco, CA 94114

enclosures:

Web link: <A 
HREF="http://www.nypress.com/content.cfm?content_id=2253&content_section=1">Ne
w York Press - New York's Premier Alternative Newspaper. Arts, Eats, Music, F<
/A> 

http://www.nypress.com/content.cfm?content_id=2253&content_section=1
  
 7-12-2000 

NY Press 
Editorial  
John Strausbaugh   
 
When Statistics Beat the Truth

Two weeks ago, San Francisco Dept. of Public Health officials announced that 
new cases of HIV in the city had risen sharply in 1999, to almost triple 1997 
levels. A tone of apocalyptic panic set by the San Francisco Chronicle–"S.F. 
HIV Rate Surges; alarming incidence of new infections raises fears of scourge 
to come"–spread around the globe via wire services and dire reports in major 
dailies like The Washington Post and New York Times. 

[Deleted article.  [email-masked]]

--------------------

Bay Area Reporter
July 6, 2000

DPH bungles on HIV infection rate increases
-----
Officials backpedal in wake of news stories

By Terry Beswick

Sensational headlines circled the globe last Friday, June 30.

"S.F. HIV Rate Surges; alarming incidence of new infections raises fears of 
scourge to come," exclaimed the San Francisco Chronicle.

[Deleted article.  [email-masked]]

-----
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395 Ninth Street
San Francisco, CA 94103
Phone: (415) 861-5019
Fax: (415) 861-6701
Email: [email-masked]

Michael Petrelis
 <A HREF="http://www.aids-statistics.com/">Welcome to AIDS-STATISTICS</A>
www.AIDS-statistics.com 
2215-R Market Street, #413
San Francisco, CA 94114