Subject: Good news about AIDS? Yes.
From: [email-masked]
Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2000 20:09:40 EST

REPRINT RIGHTS FROM: [email-masked]

Good news about AIDS?  Yes.
by Michael Petrelis
(Phone: 415-621-6267)
January 29, 2000

Lost in all the stories over the Martin Luther King holiday weekend about gay men 
of color accounting for more than half of new AIDS cases among all gay male 
cases in 1998 was any mention of continuing downward trends of AIDS diagnoses 
and deaths.

An article in the January 14 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), 
published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), stated that 
"by 1998, racial/ethnic minority MSM [Men who have Sex with Men], accounted 
for 52% of AIDS cases among MSM."  

The 52% number translates into 9,429 AIDS cases for gay men of color, versus 
8,678 cases for white gay males. However, bear in mind the 1996 figure for 
gay men of color was 12,123.  So while this population has surpassed white 
gay males for a single year, gay men of color 
have nevertheless experienced a 2,694 reduction in their total AIDS caseload. 
 
White gay men recorded 13,903 cases in 1996, a figure that sank by 5,525 men 
during 1998.

This MMWR article further noted that "AIDS incidence [number of cases] among 
all MSM declined 22% from 1996 to 1997.  The rate of decline slowed to 12% in 
1998 compared with 1997."  There likewise was fabulous news about the death 
rate.  "From 1996 to 1998, AIDS deaths declined among all racial/ethnic MSM: 
Asian/Pacific Islander - 69% less; non-Hispanic white - 65% less; American 
Indian/Alaska Native - 63% less; Hispanic - 60% less; and non-Hispanic black 
- 
53% less."

The ranking for AIDS deaths on the CDC's top fifteen leading causes of death 
index for all Americans reflects the startling drop.  

The CDC index for 1995 lists AIDS deaths nationwide at number 8.  AIDS deaths 
also ranked at number 8 in 1996.  But by 1997 AIDS deaths plummeted to number 
14.  The CDC estimates this lowered ranking to be a 47% descent.  (Here's hoping 
AIDS deaths completely fall off the top fifteen index when the 1998 numbers are 
released later this year.)

Looking at AIDS in New York City, one of the nation's hardest-hit cities by the 
disease, similar reductions are underway.

The city's health department's newly released "AIDS in Boroughs and 
Neighborhoods of NYC" reveals interesting data.  Over the course of the first six 
months of 1999, a total of 820 AIDS cases were diagnosed in the city. Assuming 
an additional 820 cases will be recorded for the last six months of last year, the 
figure for all twelve months comes to 1,640.

Contrast those 1,640 AIDS cases over 1999 with either the 4,328 diagnoses for 
1998, or the 6,719 cases for 1997 and the downward slope is clearly visible.

If the number of AIDS deaths in NYC is examined, we see 25 deaths documented 
for the first half of 1999.  For argument's sake, presume this number is an 
outrageously low undercount, let's multiply those 25 deaths by ten, and the overall 
number of AIDS death during 1999 could come to 250.  However, that 250 figure 
still is considerably less than the 511 AIDS deaths in 1998 and the 1,084 people 
who died of AIDS during 1997.

The nation's "AIDS model city," San Francisco, is also witnessing a plunge of 
newly diagnosed AIDS cases.

San Francisco's health department recently unveiled its AIDS surveillance report 
for 1999 and for the first time in more than a decade AIDS diagnoses were less than
500.  There were 464 reported AIDS cases, compared with 688 diagnoses for 
1998 and 886 cases in 1997.

Some may dismiss the AIDS statistics from New York and San Francisco as 
aberrations and that such declines are not happening elsewhere.  But AIDS 
decreases in other regions are relatively easy to verify.

A prime example is from the June 10, 1999 front page story in the Southern Voice, 
a gay paper in Atlanta.  "In Georgia, new AIDS cases fell from a high of 2,486 in 
1995-96 to 1,362 in 1997-98.  Likewise, the number of Atlantans newly diagnosed 
with AIDS fell from a high of 1,762 in 1995-96 to 972 in 1997-98," wrote the 
Southern Voice.

Fine, you say, but what about AIDS in Africa?  Well, back on the continent where 
AIDS is supposed to have originated, on January 17 Reuters news service ran a 
story from Lusaka with this extraordinary headline -- "HIV infection among the 
young down in Zambia."

Reuters stated a "report by Zambian and international researchers, verified by 
United Nations AIDS experts, showed that the percentage of HIV infected 15 to 
19-year-olds in the capital Lusaka had declined to 15 percent in 1998 compared to 
28 percent [who were HIV positive] in 1993."

Not enough glimmers of hope for Africans at risk of AIDS for you?  Then consider 
this.  "At the same time, the overall prevalence of [HIV] positive tests in the 
population as a whole appears to be stable and is no longer increasing," the UN 
report said, according to Reuters.  "These observations are interpreted to mean a 
reduction in incidence and transmission among [Zambian] youths and young 
adults."  

The wire service went on to say the UN report signifies that Zambia joins Uganda 
and Senegal as being a country "in sub-Saharan Africa where the rate of HIV 
infections appears to have turned down."

But don't tell a soul any of this too loudly.  People might get the correct idea that 
AIDS not only persists in decreasing across America, but it is now showing 
incremental signs of abating in three devastated countries in Africa.

If the media and AIDS industry can't fully acknowledge these radical reductions in 
AIDS cases and deaths, then we must question the reluctance to report declines.  
Can you think of one valid excuse why AIDS groups and mainstream reporters are 
avoiding the good AIDS news like it were a plague?  I can't.

(The author is an AIDS activist who lives in San Francisco.  He receives email at 
[email-masked].)