Subject: WHO: AIDS epidemic
From: PNEWS <[email-masked]>
Date: 2 Nov 1995 00:07:26 GMT

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From: WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION
      UNITED NATIONS
   
   60% INCREASE IN ESTIMATED AIDS CASES WORLDWIDE MOUNTING CONCERN FOR
   EPIDEMIC IN ASIA

   
   The estimated number of AIDS cases worldwide to date has gone up by
   60% since this time last year, according to figures released (1 July)
   by the World Health Organization Global Programme on AIDS.*
   
   From July 1993 to today, the global estimate of the number of AIDS
   cases since the pandemic began has increased from 2.5 million in July
   1993 to around 4 million cases today. The largest number of estimated
   AIDS cases - over 2.5 million - is in sub-Saharan Africa but as the
   epidemic takes hold in south and south- east Asia there has been an
   eight-fold increase in the past year in the number of AIDS cases in
   Asia, from more than 30,000 to about 250,000. This means that the
   proportion of AIDS cases in Asia has risen from 1% to 6% of the total.

   "This latest estimate of AIDS cases shows us two things", says Dr
   Michael Merson, Executive Director of the Global Programme on AIDS.
   "First, the epidemic of AIDS in which people infected with HIV begin
   to fall sick and die is really with us in Africa with the continent
   facing a huge burden of suffering and death. Second, if anyone needed
   proof that the AIDS epidemic is established in Asia they need look no
   further."
   
   AIDS cases are the visible part of the epidemic, but because there is
   on average 10 years between infection and the onset of AIDS, they
   reflect the HIV situation a decade ago. Today's HIV situation is that
   there have been an estimated 16 million adults and over 1 million
   children infected with HIV since the beginning of the pandemic. This
   is an increase of approximately 3 million adult infections since 1
   July 1993, of which almost half occurred in women. The end of the
   epidemic is nowhere in sight. By the end of the century WHO predicts
   that the current global total will more than double, and that 30 to 40
   million people will have been infected with the virus.
   
   The total number of adult HIV infections in sub-Saharan Africa, since
   the late 1970s to date, is more than 10 million. But the epidemic
   expansion will be most dramatic in Asia. Today's cumulative total of
   over 2.5 million infections, with about 40% infections in women, is
   expected to increase four-fold to over 10 million infections by the
   year 2000.
   
   * The number of AIDS cases actually reported to WHO since the start of
   the pandemic is 985,119. However, because of under diagnosis,
   incomplete reporting, and reporting delay the true number of people
   with AIDS is believed to be much higher, hence the estimated total of
   around 4 million cases. Press Release WHO/53 Page 2 "The Global AIDS
   epidemic is now spreading in Asia faster than anywhere else in the
   world", says Dr Merson. "Soon more Asians than Africans will be
   getting infected each year. The potential impact on families and
   society that severe disease and death among young adults will have is
   likely to be enormous. While Africa experiences increases in AIDS
   cases as a result of HIV infections that occurred about 10 years ago,
   south and south-east Asia are seeing an explosive increase in
   infections among vulnerable population groups."
   
   Heterosexual transmission of HIV has been expanding in the region,
   with significant levels of infection in female sex workers in several
   states of India, in various cities of Myanmar and across Thailand. HIV
   infection has also been detected among female sex workers in Cambodia,
   as well as among fishermen working off both the eastern and the
   western reaches of the Indonesian archipelago. In many states of
   India, such as Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Karnataka and Punjab, prevalence
   levels in patients with sexually transmitted diseases are now
   estimated to be about 1%.
   
   In Thailand, HIV infection is now spreading in the general population.
   Over 3.5% of military recruits aged 21 years were reported to be
   infected in many parts of the country from the 1992 round of surveys,
   with a prevalence rate close to 20% in Chiang Rai, northern Thailand.
   In women attending antenatal clinics in Chiang Rai province, the
   prevalence rate is now 8%.
   
   Significant levels of HIV infection have recently been detected among
   injecting drug users in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, peninsular Malaysia
   and Yunnan province, China. In Ho Chi Minh City, prevalence rates
   among groups of IDUs rose from 2% in late 1992 to more than 30% in the
   third quarter of 1993. In Bangkok, Thailand, in Manipur, northeast
   India and Yangon, Myanmar, HIV prevalence rates among injecting drug
   users rose to 50% between the late 1980s and 1992.
   
   "There is still great uncertainty about how far HIV might spread in
   large and populous areas of the world. For example, the increasing
   rate of sexually transmitted diseases in many parts of China is an
   ominous sign for those areas which are entering a new era of economic
   growth. I have great concern about the serious potential for the
   spread of HIV in that country and other countries in Asia."
   
   In parts of Asia today, HIV is spreading as fast as it did in Africa a
   decade ago. If effective HIV prevention programmes are not put in
   place, Asia will overtake Africa by the mid to late 1990s in terms of
   the number of newly infected people per year.
   
   ----------------
   
   For further information please contact the Public Information Office,
   Global Programme on AIDS, Geneva, Switzerland, telephone (41 22) 791
   4673, fax (41 22) 791 0107.

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