From: MPetrelis@aol.com Date: Mon, 27 Mar 2000 15:49:04 EST Subject: Vital Stats: CDC gets AIDS numbers wrong AIDS Ambiguity: See the CDC? by David Murray Statistical Assessment Service Statistical Assessment Service March 27, 2000 AIDS Ambiguity: See the CDC? VitalSTATS March 2000 In previous issues (-AIDing and Abetting,- July 1999), VitalSTATS has castigated some reporters for confusing proportional shifts in declining AIDS cases with trends in absolute numbers. In defense of those reporters, it is important to note that official statistics from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) have sometimes contributed to the misunderstanding. A good example of ambiguity can be found in the January 14 issue of the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), entitled -HIV/AIDS Among Racial/Ethnic Minority Men Who Have Sex with Men [MSM] -` United States, 1989-1998.- The document reads, -In 1989, racial/ethnic minority MSM accounted for 24,444 (31%) AIDS cases among MSM, and by 1998, racial/ethnic minority MSM accounted for 18,153 (52%) AIDS cases among MSM.- These data could lead one to believe that the proportional increase in minority MSM cases was accompanied by a substantial decline in the absolute number of AIDS cases among racial/ethnic MSM between 1989 and 1998. But astute MMWR reader (and VitalSTATS fan) Michael Petrelis sensed a discrepancy, and took the trouble to check the actual number of cases in those respective years. It turns out that the 1989 figure of 24,444 cases was for all MSM, including non-minority men, as was the 1998 figure of 18,153 cases. After Petrelis brought the actual data to the attention of the CDC, the following -clarification- was appended to the MMWR for February 4, 2000: -In 1989, racial/ethnic minority MSM accounted for 7,609 (31%) of 24,444 AIDS cases among MSM, and by 1998, racial/ethnic minority MSM accounted for 9,429 (52%) of 18,153 AIDS cases among MSM.- Hence, since 1989, minority MSM have experienced a 24 percent increase in cases. Against the backdrop of a 26 percent decline in total AIDS cases during the same time period, the effect was to propel minority MSM cases to slightly more than half of all cases by 1998. Perhaps this rise was what Neal Nathanson and Judith Aurbach of the Office of AIDS Research at the National Institutes of Health had in mind when they wrote in Science magazine (June 1999) that -HIV infection rates continue to climb in a number of population groups, such as ... racial and ethnic minorities.- But the story is even more complicated than that. Even though minority MSM increased as a percentage of cases since 1989, there has been a substantial drop (from 12,165 to the current 9,429) in the number of such cases since 1996. In absolute numbers, AIDS is currently declining in every category of MSM cases, despite all official appearances to the contrary. (Check out the Petrelis web site at www.AIDS-statistics.com) ------------------------------------------------------ Donations can be sent to: Michael Petrelis Welcome to AIDS-STATISTICS www.AIDS-statistics.com 2215-R Market Street, #413 San Francisco, CA 94114